Poll: Rural Voters Not Reliably Republican in 2008

The Center for Rural Strategies, a Kentucky-based rural think tank lead by Dee Davis, has partnered with Greenberg-Quinlan Research and Greener-Hook Research to poll rural voters on how the presidential candidates are doing. The result showed Clinton and McCain tied, with each getting 46% in the poll. Obama did less well, running nine points behind McCain.

However, Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, GA, says "This poll is more good news than bad news for Obama, because he's only losing rural voters by nine points. ... He's pretty well-positioned to do very well in these swing states."

NPR reports that the survey took place the week of May 13-15 with 682 phone call to citizens in non-metropolitan counties in 13 "battleground" states (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada).

54% of those surveyed agreed with the statement: John McCain has served his country honorably but he does not seem to understand my economic problems.

"Bitter" vs. "Roses"

Several days ago, we noted the controversy where Obama used the word "bitter" to describe some of the disappointment ... and anger ... in rural America today. We wrote, "... a lot of rural folks have lost their dreams in these last 25-30 years ... suffering through the "farm crisis of the 1980’s" and communities losing plant after plant of good union jobs moving overseas."

My Rural America has joined a new coalition lead by Al Cross (writer of The Rural Blog and Director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Communications), which calls for a presidential forum or debate about the issues facing rural America. Cross sites the challenges of No Child Left Behind, the still-undone Farm Bill and environmental issues in his request to the presidential candidates. Certainly, there is much more to talk about, including:

• Re: Jobs Lost. Have you ever noticed that when the Department of Labor releases their figures on jobs lost, they never even count the jobs lost from the farms of America ... only "off farm" jobs get counted.
• Re: Soldiers Lost ... in the war in Afghanistan and the occupation in Iraq. According to the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute, our brave men and women soldiers who come from the small towns and country roads across America have a 60% higher death rate higher death rate than do the soldiers who come from urban America. For many of our rural kids, joining the military is the only way they can get to college. For other rural kids, serving in the National Guard and getting that extra pay is the "extra income" that keeps them above the poverty level.
• Re: Health Insurance Lost. 6% more of our rural kids get their health care from SCHIP -- State Children's Health Insurance Program -- than do urban kids, yet enough proudly conservative rural members of Congress voted no on the need to expand this great program so that more of our kids nationwide could take advantage of it.
• Re: Education Funding Lost. Rural schools serve 40% of our nation's students but receive only 22 percent of federal education funding.
  

Combine these issues and more with rural America's shrinking voice in Congress caused by the emptying out of rural America and what you get is forgotten. In my home state of Iowa, our "shrinking voice" has meant Iowa is down to five U.S. representatives. That's down from 11 in 1930. Next to come is 2012 when we can expect to have only four Members representing us.

Rob Rose, reporter for the Meadville Tribune in Indiana, writes, "Bitter is as Bitter Does", as he adds his voice to the growing call for a rural presidential forum:

ROSE -- "The presidential primary votes of Hoosiers are, for the first time in nearly a half-century, meaningful. Obama’s remarks give us an opportunity to back two national politicians into corners and keep them there until they give us real answers to real problems — and we should."

We agree. Everything is NOT coming up roses in rural America and it's high time the presidential candidates started talking in more detail. Obama started the conversation. Clinton criticized. Now let's put some meat on the bones of this discussion.

Not Everything is Coming Up Roses in Rural America

By now, everyone who has had their TV on has heard some of the "back & forth" between Hillary and Obama about how she thinks that he was demeaning in his description of rural voters. It made me think about the time in 1996 when the country was back to work and interest rates were on their way down. Then, someone asked me why was it that middle class voters weren't feeling secure? "Afterall, they are back to work," said my friend.

My answer then was that even though people were back to work, they hadn't paid off their credit cards or replenished their savings back into the bank, so they were still behind. In some cases, what "back to work" meant was that they were employed, not that they were employed in as good of jobs as they had when they were laid off during the Bush and Reagan years.

Now, those good jobs are still gone. It's a long time.

I think about where we are now -- 12 years later, good jobs gone, unemployment rising, shaky stock market, unbelievably high gasoline prices, kids in rural areas signing up to go to war with the hope that their gamble allows them to come home safe and go to college. And I think about some of my friends ... aging prematurely, working too hard ... working just to make ends meet .

It's true that "bitter" is kind of a tough word, so maybe better words to have used would have been "tired" or "worn out" ... "dreams gone". Thinking realistically, a lot of rural folks have lost their dream in these last 25-30 years ... suffering through the "farm crisis of the 1980's" and communities losing plant after plant of good union jobs moving overseas. And now, we've also got another mortgage lending crisis on our hands, too, so -- no, everything isn't coming up roses in rural America and from our view point, it's a good thing when political leaders start recognizing it.

Read "Clinton" and also "Obama" to see for yourself how the story continues.

Which Will We Choose -- Wall Street vs. Main Street -- in the Fight to Fix the Home Ownership/Mortgage Lending Crisis?

It was in the 1980's that many of us who lived on farms in rural communities either lost our land or saw our friends lose theirs. I remember it well because it was then that I moved away from the farm that I loved.

Yesterday, as I watched presidential candidate John McCain speak about his solution for home owners affected by the mortgage lending crisis, it all came back -- an echo of the past about the haunting emotional pain that we felt all across rural America, losing the land we loved, moving away, wondering if we'd ever be financially secure again. I remembered the increase in the divorce rate, the child custody battles, as well as how some turned to increased drug and alcohol abuse as homes and farms were lost.

I asked myself, "Is the mortgage crisis bringing on the same kinds of anxiety and heartbreak that the Farm Crisis did in the 1980's?" And I almost hate to admit it but yes, it seems so as I thought back -- George H. W. Bush was president at the end of this ugly period; he tried to cure our ailing economy by urging us all to go out and buy a couple of pairs of new socks. What I can't remember ... was that before or after he discovered that grocery stores had machines in them (glory be!) that could actually read the price labels. I mean Who Knew?

But now, the more things change, the more they stay the same. We're on the verge of ending another failed Presidency and hopefully, voters will make a wiser choice for President this year, than we did either time we chose a Bush for president.

That choice -- who to vote for President -- is one that eventually we will need to add to our growing list of speeches and program proposals that matter, or don't ... asking ourselves: Are we for or against?

Yesterday -- one year after the home ownership crisis began, we listened carefully as McCain spoke about our fragile middle class economy and what he thought was most important about responding to the crisis. I wondered, "Is he going to choose Wall Street or Main Street?"

McCain emphasized, "A sustained period of rising home prices made many home lenders complacent, giving them a false sense of security and causing them to lower their lending standards ... Lenders ended up violating the basic rule of banking: don't lend people money who can't pay it back."

True. Some people may have purchased homes they couldn't afford and true, we shouldn't "lend people money who can't pay it back" but many of the people who bought homes purchased in good faith. They paid their loans on time.

We have to ask? How is it that McCain blames the people who bought the houses, rather than the predatory lending system that allowed some mortgage brokers to go for the big bucks? 'Looking for excuses to take houses back, they now rush to take the homes back, later to resell and claim additional profit.

Why -- if lenders made mistakes as McCain said, would he want to ease the regulations on lenders?

Why -- didn't McCain offer policies that would aid the families who are hurt by lender mistakes?

Why -- would McCain reward the lenders for their mistakes? ... which he did.

What would have made sense -- common sense -- would have been to propose using the FHA home loan program, offering counseling for the families, loan restructuring and tax breaks -- all ways that offer immediate help to the families, while also penalizing the lenders who over-stepped. Some of these solutions are already being offered in Congress. See Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and the two other presidential candidates -- Obama and Clinton.

Clinton, Obama, McCain

Tuesday's results made a clear path for Senator McCain to be nominated as the Republican candidate for President. Meanwhile, Governor Huckabee closed the door on his campaign, saying that he didn't think he would be asked to join McCain on the ticket.

What's more interesting to us is the race between Senators Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. Obama's winning streak -- 14 states in a row, ended last night with Hillary claimed victory for three states against Obama's singular win. Certainly, the news media, with Hillary almost gleeful, made much of her wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and yes ... even the very narrow win in Texas. What was more interesting to us was what happened in the delegate count since the victories for both candidates were actually very tight.

Overall, the Wall Street Journal reports that before Tuesday, Obama lead with 1,386-1,276 lead over Clinton, or a 110 delegate advantage, according to the Associated Press. With all but nine of the 370 delegates at stake Tuesday awarded by mid-afternoon today, Obama still led 1,562-1,461 — with a 101-delegate advantage. The full story is available at "Obama Maintains His Delegate Lead."

The more serious question about the contest between Obama and Hillary was asked today by Newsweek: "A Game of Survivor ... Hillary takes Texas and Ohio, setting back Obama and staying alive. But with McCain securing the Republican nomination, will the continuing battle between the two Democrats cost them the White House?"

That question -- will the continuing battle cost Democrats the White House? -- is definitely one that could keep us up nights. For 2008, Democrats losing would mean a McCain victory. His commitment for the U.S. to stay in Iraq for "100 years", his commitment to privatize Social Security, and last but not least, his commitment to make the tax cuts permanent for the richest people in this country is a prescription for disaster.

Countdown: Less than Five Days Until TX/OH Showdown

Texas and Ohio are the two most important primaries coming up on Tuesday, and at this point it is pretty clear that the Republicans have settled on the fact that their nominee will be John McCain ... like it or lump it. It also appears that Democrats are starting to settle in with Barack Obama ... but Hillary is still working hard to claim the nomination so it's not over til it's over.

Meanwhile, see below for what some national pundants ... not they alway know ... are saying about the last debate:

• Boston Globe: Clinton Attacks on All Fronts. Obama Hits Back on Health, Trade, War and Campaign Tactics.
• New York Times: A Complicated Challenge on One Side; A Single Task on the Other.
• The New York Observer: Panetta's Lament: They Had No Plan.
  

Please Join Us as We Watch the Debate Tonight

Check your local times, but be sure to watch. The debate takes place in Austin, TX, and will be one of the last debates before the Democratic decision as to who the nominee will be is made. That candidate -- Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will likely face John McCain in November.

For background purposes, we present some of the recent coverage for each candidate.

• "Beginning of the End for Clinton?" LA TIMES, 2/20/08
• "Obama Takes Hawaii and Wisconsin in Decisive Fashion McCain Easily Defeats Huckabee in Wisconsin" Washington Post, 2/20/08

Obama has won 11 caucuses and primaries in a row now, so it's up to Hillary to turn things around or she will not be the nominee. Meanwhile, according to the New York Times, McCain has been busy today answering question about an alleged inappropriate relationship with a New York lobbyist. See story at "For McCain, Self-Confidence on Ethics Poses Its Own Risks," New York Times, 2/21/08.

Obama Slams Home Three Big Victories; McCain Wins Narrowly

This morning we're sharing some of our favorite stories about the Virginia, Maryland and District of Columbia primaries, but first -- CONGRATULATIONS VOTERS! No matter who you voted for, you turned out in record breaking number on an icky, rainy, icy day and night and over all, our democracy was the winner.

In the Democratic race, Barack Obama won every single demographic group of voters, including the majority of white men and women, Hispanics and African-Americans. The only exception to this winning streak was one tiny demographic group found in Maryland -- the over $200,000 income voters, a group that generally doesn't vote for Democrats only. Walter Shapiro writes in detail in Salon about the broad scope of the Obama win: "Obama's Surge Extends Down the Potomac."

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is nothing if not determined, and Potomac's election night found her in El Paso with a cheering crowd and a reshuffled campaign. Last night's results, which gave Hillary her eighth straight loss, and reduced her delegate count so much that it made Hillary in to the "running second" category, was not to be seen in El Paso. Peter Canellos writes today in the Boston Globe that the "Race Tests Moralle, Traditional Wisdom."

And poor John McCain. He barely squeaked by Governor Huckabee, but his narrow win was enough to move him forward as the inevitable Republican nominee. We pause here to reflect ... isn't it at least a little bit amazing that both Governor Romnee and Mayor Guiliani have taken themselves out of the race? Who would have thought? Dana Milbank gives an overview in his Washington Post story, "The Decisive Winner, By a Nose." There is also a Gallery of campaign pictures to the right of the story, too -- very fun to look at!

Meanwhile, there is much more coverage. These stories begin with Obama buying doughnuts for his very cold election volunteers, continue with coverage of his "thank you" speech in Wisconsin, the next stop in the few remaining primaries left before we learn who the winning nominees are. Also included is coverage of the remaining challenges faced by the few candidates still fighting to be the Democratic and Republican nominees.

Barack Obama:

• Obama Inspires Crowd at Packed Kohl Center Rally, Wisconsin State Journal
• Obama Rides Momentum into Wisconsin, USATODAY
• Halperin's Take: Sixteen Underappreciated Obama Advantages, TIME Magazine
• Obama's Friends in Unlikely Places, Stateline.org
  

Hillary Clinton:

• Clinton Kicks Off Texas Efforts, NBC News
• Clinton Plays Election Roulette, The Politico
• Inside the Clinton Shake-Up -- how Hillary's Campaign Got Itself into a Ditch, and how it might get itself out, The Atlantic Monthly

John McCain andMike Huckabee:

• McCain Gets Wins, Not Mandate, Washington Times
• Assessing the GOP's Chances, Wall Street Journal
• Huckabee Again Shows Strength on the Right, Washington Post
  

Reflections -- Filling the News Gap in Rural America

As we at My Rural America began this website, we had only one goal.

• To fill the news gap existing in rural America. This gap is well documented by the Kellogg Foundation, the Pew Institute and our own studies, too. Rural citizens do not have easy access to the information we need to educate ourselves about whether rural America's "bread & butter" issues are supported ... or not! ... by our national elected representatives who vote about our rural "kitchen table" almost every day in Washington.
  

Research shows that often the only information easily available in rural communities is what elected officials say about their own votes, as sometimes heard on the radio and other times reprinted from the representatives' own press releases.

Thus, our original goal -- to become an independent verifier, showcasing additional detail about legislative actions and votes, adds light to key votes that really matter. For example, a continuing story developed by My Rural America is about the difficulty of getting disaster assistance to farmers for drought.

• In short, our coverage shows both neglect to the issue and that the need is ongoing:
  
• 2006: the Republican Minority had locked up the bill for two years -- an unprecedented action since disaster assistance usually gets bipartisan support;
  
• 2006: Rep. John Barrow (GA) tried to fix the problem with a discharge petition that would have forced a floor vote. Dems gave him 195 signature and Repubs offered
  
• However, 218 signatures were necessary. Farmers remained without assistance; (4) 2007: Dems passed funding for disaster assistance early in the year;
  
• 2007: See story: The Perfect Drought on this blog 10/27-07 -- Georgia Republicans catch on ... drought in Georgia matters.
• 2008: Visit US Drought Monitor to see about whether your state will be in need next.
  

Unfortunately, there are all too many stories like this. Local newspapers don't have the resources to tell you who votes ... and who does not vote ... in support of rural America. Re -- drought: If you were represented by conservative Representatives Frank Lucas in Oklahoma, Barbara Cubin in Wyoming, Henry Bonilla in Texas, Jerry Moran in Kansas, you should know that they betrayed you on drought ... no effort but lots of town meetings and press conferences. They simply did not act. Bonilla is gone now and Cubin soon will be, but Moran and Lucas are running again.

Over time, with the presidential caucus and primary season upon us, we expect to add continuing news about the presidential candidates' positions and commitments to rural America. To do so, oOur first big challenge is to find information ... easy with the Democrats who have both campaigned with platforms for strengthening rural America, but difficult to do for Republicans who have not addressed rural America in their platforms so far.

Although subject to change as new information becomes available, we've made the decision to base our comparisons for Republicans on President Bush's record combined with the Republican Minority who endorse his proposals to Congress vs. the record of all three Democratic sources, i.e., the Democratic Congress's actions and the plans of both Democratic candidates -- Senators Clinton and Obama.

Last Night at a Glance -- Both Clinton and Obama Won

UPDATED NUMBERS -- Obama won more states.

• Obama: 14 (plus 2)-- Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah (plus earlier winning Iowa and South Carolina)
  
• Clinton: 8 (plus 2) -- Arkansas, Arizona, California, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee (plus earlier winning New Hampshire and Nevada)
  

Clinton won more delegates.

• Clinton: 641.
  
• Obama: 633.

Or, if you look at grand totals so far, Clinton has a slight edge. According to MSNBC's unofficial count which includes super delegates, some of whom have not gone public:

• Clinton: 811 -- includes 193 super delegates
  
• Obama: 720 -- includes 111 super delegates
  

Note that super delegates in a tight contest are notoriously fickle, so when the polls move around, so so the decisions of the super delegates. As we watch this contest move into the next several weeks, the promises of super delegates need to be weighed with great care.

Other "facts at a glance" that we found interesting:

• Clinton won the largest of the primary states and did best among the following:
• Middle-aged voters and seniors
• Women
  
• Hispanics (6 in 10)
  
• Voters most concerned about health care and the economy.
• Low income and less educated.
  

• Obama won all the Caucus states and also won states in every region of the country and he did best among the following:

• Voters under age 44
• White men
• African Americans (8 in 10)
  
• Voters concerned about Iraq; voters who want change.
  
• Higher income voters and better educated.

Later today, we'll do a similar review of the Republicans, and also review what the differences in the popular vote were.

Super Tsunami Tuesday

My Rural America made a decision some time ago that we would wait to see who our presidential nominees are before we share much in the way of campaign news, but today is Super Tuesday when 22 states, many of them with significant numbers of rural voters, are voting so see below for some of our favorite recent news coverage. They are chosen to showcase a broad cross section of stories about the two remaining progressive candidates in the race. It bears noting that both of them -- Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have chosen to be very specific about their plans for rural America, offering detailed policies to assist the rural economy. See these plans at the end of this column. We would also be remiss if we failed to point out that neither of the two leading conservative candidates -- Senator McCain and Governor Romney, have offered specific plans for rural America.

• My Qualms Before the Storm, Salon 2/4/08
• Tuesday's Tipping Point, Boston Globe 2/5/08
• How Edwards Advanced the Debate, Boston Globe 2/2/08
  
• In Democratic Families, Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows , New York Times 2/4/08
  
• Obama, Cultivating California Spirit, Eases Clinton's Grip on the State , New York Times 2/4/08
  
• Bill Clinton's Legacy, How Former President Is Viewed Could Affect Vote , Washington Post 2/4/08
  
• Democrats Flood States With Ads as Tuesday Nears , New York Times 2/3/08
  
• Clinton Aides Hit Obama Ad -- Health Care Ad Called Misleading, Boston Globe 2/3/08
  
• Obama, Clinton Play Their Parts to Perfection by Los Angeles Times 2/2/08
• Clinton Campaigns in California, Obama Hits New Mexico, Los Angeles Times 2/2/08
• Democratic Stalemate, Washington Post 2/4/08
• Clinton, Obama, Insurance, New York Times 2/4/08
• The Cooper Concerns, New York Times 2/4/08

And here are Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama's policy proposals for rural America.

Senator Clinton: Creating Opportunity for Rural America
Senator Obama: Plan to Support Rural Communities.